Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Keith Thurman

This looks like a hard comeback for Keith Thurman. I respect what he’s achieved, but the Fundora defeat showed how little breathing room he now gets against sustained pressure. Vergil Ortiz Jr brings plenty of that, with heavier individual shots than Thurman can afford to keep taking.

Thurman’s best weapon is still the counter right as his opponent steps in. I’d want him feinting, drawing Ortiz forward and turning him after landing. Ortiz can become available when he’s keen to close the distance, so there should be opportunities. The question is whether Thurman can keep moving effectively between those exchanges. Against Fundora, occasional clean counters couldn’t interrupt the pressure.

What I like about Ortiz is his punch selection once he gets a man near the ropes. He’ll drive the straight right through the middle, then bring shots around the guard. Lubin found out how quickly that becomes dangerous. Ortiz needs to establish his jab first here; following Thurman around looking for one big finish would make the job harder.

I’m taking Ortiz by technical knockout in the seventh. Thurman can make him miss early, but I expect the body attack to reduce his movement and leave him defending on the ropes. Once that happens, I fancy Ortiz to force the referee’s intervention.