David Benavidez vs Michal Cieslak

This looks like a hard night for Michal Cieslak. He brings punching power and has never been stopped, so I wouldn’t dismiss him as someone coming for a payday. But I see David Benavidez’s speed between punches deciding this. Cieslak needs room to deliver his work; Benavidez makes you defend several shots before you can answer.

What I rate about Benavidez is how he changes the target during a combination. Cover your head, and he works downstairs, then comes back through the middle. Against Ramirez, that sustained attack carried across against a bigger man. His risk here is staying in front after finishing: Cieslak’s right hand demands a proper defensive exit, however comfortable Benavidez feels.

Cieslak’s best chance, for me, is a firm jab followed by the straight right while Benavidez closes the distance. He must make the first exchange count, then move. Waiting behind his gloves would surrender the initiative, and I don’t fancy him matching Benavidez’s combinations once they’re working at close quarters.

I’m taking Benavidez by Tko in the ninth. I expect Cieslak to remain dangerous early, but the body work and repeated changes of target should wear down his resistance.