Jai Opetaia vs Norair Mikaeljan

I can’t see this as a fifty-fifty fight. Jai Opetaia is unbeaten, operating at his physical peak and generally recognised as the division’s leading man. Norair “Noel” Mikaeljan is experienced, clever, and deserving of respect after defeating Badou Jack, but at 35 he is facing a younger champion whose speed and intensity are hard to replicate in sparring.

Mikaeljan is tall, composed and technically sound. He uses a straight jab, keeps his shape and understands how to slow a contest by tying up or taking half a step out of range. The problem is that he likes an orderly fight, and Opetaia doesn’t give opponents much time to organise themselves.

Opetaia’s greatest advantage is not simply his southpaw stance or punching power. It is the speed with which he moves from defence into attack. He slips outside the jab, closes the distance and lets both hands go before the other man has reset his feet. His left hand through the middle is dangerous, but the right hook around an orthodox guard could be the shot that begins breaking Mikaeljan down.

Mikaeljan must keep his lead foot outside Opetaia’s, jab to the chest and prevent the Australian from building combinations. If he backs towards the ropes in straight lines, he will be in serious trouble. Opetaia can occasionally rush his work when he believes an opponent is hurt, so Mikaeljan may find countering opportunities, particularly with the right uppercut. He doesn’t carry enough power to discourage Opetaia for long.

I expect Mikaeljan to make the opening rounds awkward and nick one or two with his jab. Once Opetaia finds the range, the pace and body punching will begin taking the older man’s legs away. Mikaeljan is capable and durable, but he will be asked to work at a rate he cannot sustain. 

Opetaia wins by referee’s stoppage.