Isaac Cruz vs Nestor Bravo

This is by no means a mismatch, but Cruz should be the favourite for a reason. He is the interim WBC super-lightweight champion, has fought Gervonta Davis, Rolly Romero, Jose Valenzuela, and Lamont Roach, and knows what a hard 12 rounds feels like. Bravo is 24-1 with 17 stoppages and comes in dangerous after flattening Pedro Campa, so he is nobody’s fool.

Cruz is short, squat and horrible to discourage. He gets underneath taller fighters, shifts his feet well enough to keep them working and bangs hard to the body once he gets close. Bravo has the height and reach to make this awkward, and his left hook is no joke. If Cruz comes charging in square, he can get caught on the whiskers.

The nuts and bolts are simple. Bravo needs the jab working from the first bell, then he has to pivot off rather than back straight up. If he gives Cruz a static target, he is in trouble. Cruz’s advantage is pressure with purpose: head movement, short steps, body shots, then the hooks upstairs. His danger is becoming predictable and loading up too much, something sharper movers have punished before.

I can see Bravo having some early success, but I do not trust him to keep Cruz off for 12 rounds. Once Cruz starts closing the ring and leaning on him, the fight changes.

Cruz by stoppage in the latter half of the fight.