Deontay Wilder vs Jai Opetaia

This is a test of whether Wilder’s right hand can still make up for the rounds he gives away. I favour Opetaia. Wilder’s win over Chisora hasn’t persuaded me that he’s recovered the confidence or sharpness he lost against Parker and Zhang. Jai comes off stopping Mikaelian, and his speed and combination punching present a different problem from a heavyweight walking straight towards Deontay.

I’d have Opetaia working for the outside lead foot position, putting the southpaw left through the middle and leaving at an angle. Wilder needs space to measure that right hand. Make him reset his feet repeatedly, and I don’t trust his jab or inside work to keep control. Jai must resist rushing in after landing, though. His combinations bring him within reach, and pulling straight back after the last punch would give Wilder exactly the opening he wants.

Wilder’s advantage is that he can hurt a smaller man without winning the exchange beforehand. Opetaia’s heavyweight durability remains untested, whatever his courage against Briedis proved. But I expect Jai to make Wilder hesitate, then increase the pressure as the older man’s responses slow. I’m picking Opetaia by stoppage in the first half of the fight, through repeated clean attacks rather than trying to trade single punches.